Week Ending February 1, 2026

Fed Dovish Pivot Narrows Canada-US Spreads as Quality Rotation Accelerates

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Week Ending February 1, 2026

Fed Dovish Pivot Narrows Canada-US Spreads as Quality Rotation Accelerates

Executive Summary

📊 Overview

Fed's 25bps cut and dovish guidance triggered duration rallies as Canada-US spreads narrowed to 85bps, the tightest since 2024.

📈 Rates

Investment grade spreads compressed further to 73bps despite deteriorating fundamentals, prompting quality rotation toward AA-A rated issuers.

💳 Credit

Canadian duration remains attractive at 3.41% with BoC on extended hold, while credit markets face headwinds from elevated leverage and upcoming refinancing walls in high yield.

Central Bank Policy Rates

12-month trajectory

Canadian Yield Curve

Government bond yields by maturity

Credit Spreads

Option-adjusted spreads over treasuries

Market Sentiment

Duration

Bullish

Credit

Cautious

Quality Bias

Positive

Policy Uncertainty

Elevated

Central Bank Watch

Central BankRateLast ActionNext MeetingOutlook
🇨🇦Bank of Canada2.25%Hold(January 22)March 18, 2026Extended pause continues with data-dependent approach as inflation moderates toward 2% target
🇺🇸Federal Reserve3.75%-25bps(January 29)March 18, 2026Dovish pivot with further cuts signaled as labor market cooling accelerates and inflation pressures ease
🇪🇺ECB2.00%Hold(January 23)February 5, 2026Gradual normalization continues with deposit rate normalization toward neutral levels through 2026
🇬🇧Bank of England0.25%Hold(January 30)February 5, 2026Extended accommodation maintained as UK inflation pressures moderate and growth concerns persist

Market Snapshot

MetricCurrentWeekly ChangeStatus
🇨🇦 Canada 10Y3.41%0bps—
🇺🇸 US 10Y4.26%+2bps—
IG Spread (OAS)73bps—Tight
HY Spread (OAS)272bps—Tight

Rates Overview

🇨🇦 Canada

  • •Policy stance: BoC held at 2.25% with extended pause — Macklem emphasized 'measured approach' as core inflation at 2.1% (BoC, January 22)
  • •Yield curve: Steepened 3bps with 10Y at 3.41% — Canada-US 10Y spread narrowed to 85bps from 98bps on Fed dovish shift
  • •Provincials: Ontario at +47bps, Quebec at +44bps — TD sees 'structural undervaluation' with foreign demand returning
  • •Institutional view: RBC targets GoC 10Y at 3.15% by Q4 2026 as BoC cuts 50bps — 'compelling value at current levels'
  • •Positioning: Overweight 5Y-10Y sector — CIBC recommends extending duration with 6.5Y target vs 5.2Y benchmark

🇺🇸 United States

  • •Fed stance: Cut 25bps to 3.75% with dovish dot plot — Powell signals 'labor market cooling faster than expected' (FOMC, January 29)
  • •Inflation constraint: Core PCE at 2.4% provides cutting room — wages decelerating to 3.8% YoY from 4.2% in December
  • •Technicals: UST supply concerns ease with deficit projections improving — foreign demand up 15% in January auctions
  • •Institutional view: Goldman targets Fed at 3.00% by year-end — 'recession risk rising with employment momentum slowing'
  • •Positioning: JPMorgan recommends intermediate duration with 4.5-5.5Y focus — avoid long-end inflation risk

🌍 Global

  • •Europe: Bund at 2.15% with ECB normalization path intact — market prices 25bps cut by June meeting
  • •UK: Gilts rally 4bps to 3.85% on BoE dovish hold — inflation target achieved but growth concerns dominate
  • •Japan: JGB 10Y at 1.15% as BoJ maintains ultra-loose policy — intervention risk supports yen carry trades
  • •EM flows: Positive $2.1bn inflows to local currency bonds — Fed dovish pivot supports emerging market duration
  • •Positioning: Morgan Stanley overweight developed market duration vs emerging markets given policy clarity

Credit Markets

Investment Grade

  • •Spreads: OAS tightened 2bps to 73bps — tightest since March 2021 with only 15bps above all-time tights
  • •Fundamentals: Corporate leverage at 3.3x with interest coverage declining to 4.2x — refinancing wall of $850bn in 2026-2027
  • •Institutional view: BlackRock warns 'spread compression overdone' — rotating to AA-A quality from BBB reach-for-yield
  • •Canada opportunity: Canadian IG at +68bps vs US +73bps — BMO sees 'home bias discount' providing relative value
  • •Positioning: Overweight financials 35% vs 28% benchmark — Scotiabank recommends quality rotation given cycle maturity

High Yield

  • •Spreads: OAS at 272bps prices 1.2% default rate — Moody's forecasts 2.8% default rate by Q4 2026 refinancing cycle
  • •Quality rotation: BB-B spread differential widened to 180bps — investors avoiding CCC space with 15% of market refinancing
  • •Sectors: Energy outperformed +45bps vs index — healthcare lagged -65bps on regulatory uncertainty
  • •Risk watch: PIMCO highlights refinancing risk with $420bn HY maturities 2026-2027 — 'selective approach essential'
  • •Positioning: Wellington caps HY at 15% with BB focus — avoid CCC given refinancing cliff and elevated leverage

Hedging & Risk Management

Duration Strategy

  • •Stance: Constructive on duration extension — TD recommends 6.5Y target as Fed cutting cycle provides tailwinds
  • •Target duration: Conservative 5.5Y, Balanced 6.5Y, Growth 7.0Y — intermediate positioning captures curve steepening
  • •Implementation: Barbell strategy with 5Y and 10Y focus — avoid 7Y sector given rich valuations vs curve
  • •Risk trigger: Duration reduction if core inflation exceeds 2.6% or labor market reaccelerates above 200k monthly adds

Volatility & Hedging

  • •Vol environment: MOVE Index at 95 vs 105 average — implied volatility decline creates option buying opportunities
  • •Agency MBS: Generic 30Y at +142bps offers 70bps pickup vs IG corporates — Loomis Sayles sees 'structural value'
  • •Income strategies: Covered call strategies on duration positions — earn 40-60bps annual premium in low-vol environment
  • •Protection: 5Y CDS on IG index at 35bps provides downside protection — cost-effective hedge vs spread widening
  • •Optionality: 2Y10Y steepener swaptions at 25bps — asymmetric payoff if recession fears materialize

Institutional Perspectives

TD Securities

Constructive on Canadian duration with policy divergence advantage

Rates: GoC 10Y target 3.15% by Q4 2026 — BoC 50bps easing cycle vs Fed 75bps creates relative value
Credit: Quality bias essential with IG spreads at 73bps — prefer government duration over corporate beta
Key Call: Extend duration to 6.5Y target capturing steepening as central bank divergence narrows Canada-US spreads

RBC Economics

Neutral with upside bias on falling inflation trajectory

Rates: BoC terminal rate 1.75% by Q4 2026 — labor market slack emerging with wage growth moderating to 3.5%
Credit: Corporate fundamentals deteriorating but spreads overshoot likely given Fed accommodation
Key Call: Provincial bonds at +45bps offer compelling value with foreign demand returning to CAD markets

Goldman Sachs Research

Dovish Fed view supports duration as recession risk rises

Rates: Fed terminal rate 3.00% by December 2026 — employment momentum slowing with jobless claims rising
Credit: Investment grade vulnerable to fundamental deterioration despite Fed accommodation providing floor
Key Call: Intermediate duration 4.5-5.5Y optimal capturing Fed cuts while avoiding long-end inflation risk

BlackRock Investment Institute

Quality-focused positioning given late-cycle dynamics

Rates: Duration tactically attractive but favor government over corporate given spread compression
Credit: Spread compression overdone at 73bps — rotating from BBB reach-for-yield to AA-A quality
Key Call: Agency MBS at +142bps offers superior risk-adjusted returns vs corporate credit compression

PIMCO

Defensive positioning with quality duration emphasis

Rates: Global duration attractive with central banks dovish but favor developed markets over EM
Credit: High yield refinancing cliff creates significant downside risk in 2026-2027 maturity wall
Key Call: Selective high yield with BB focus — avoid CCC space given $420bn refinancing cliff ahead

BMO Capital Markets

Modestly positive on Canadian fixed income outperformance

Rates: Canada-US spread normalization toward 75bps as policy cycles converge through 2026
Credit: Canadian IG discount at +68bps vs US +73bps reflects home bias — foreign demand catalyst emerging
Key Call: Overweight Canadian credit benefiting from BoC policy stability and improving foreign flows

JPMorgan Private Bank

Active duration management essential in transition period

Rates: Intermediate duration 4.5-5.5Y optimal given Fed cutting cycle but inflation uncertainty remains
Credit: High-grade credit income focus avoiding duration risk in long corporates given spread tightness
Key Call: Barbell strategy with government duration and high-quality credit avoiding BBB reach-for-yield

Scotiabank Economics

Constructive on Canadian bonds with global outperformance potential

Rates: BoC policy stability advantage as global central banks navigate complex inflation-growth tradeoffs
Credit: Quality rotation accelerating — recommend overweight financials given regulatory capital strength
Key Call: Financial sector overweight at 35% vs 28% benchmark given sector quality and yield advantage

Wellington Management

Selective approach with emphasis on risk-adjusted returns

Rates: Duration positioning attractive but focus on intermediate sector avoiding long-end convexity risk
Credit: Security selection critical as dispersion increases — cap HY allocation at 15% with BB focus
Key Call: Quality dispersion creates alpha opportunities — avoid refinancing risk in lower-quality credits

CIBC Economics

Dovish central bank environment supports fixed income positioning

Rates: Labor market slack provides BoC flexibility for gradual normalization without inflation pressures
Credit: Neutral credit positioning appropriate balancing tight spreads with supportive monetary policy
Key Call: Duration extension to 6.5Y target captures central bank accommodation while managing curve risk

Loomis Sayles

Value opportunities in structured products over corporate credit

Rates: Government duration preferred over credit given spread compression limiting upside potential
Credit: Agency MBS structural value at +142bps — 70bps pickup vs IG corporates with government backing
Key Call: Agency MBS allocation increase given spread advantage and reduced credit risk vs corporate bonds

Morgan Stanley Research

Developed market duration over emerging markets given policy clarity

Rates: Fed dovish pivot creates duration tailwinds but favor intermediate positioning over long-end
Credit: Late-cycle dynamics favor quality rotation as fundamental metrics deteriorate across sectors
Key Call: Overweight developed market government bonds vs emerging market duration given policy divergence

Portfolio Implications

🛡️

Conservative

  • •Target duration: 5.5 years — defensive positioning capturing Fed accommodation while limiting extension risk
  • •GoC/Provincials 65%: Core stability with provincial pickup at +45bps offering 40bps annual enhancement
  • •IG Corporates 30%: Quality focus on AA-A ratings avoiding BBB reach-for-yield given tight 73bps spreads
  • •Agency MBS 5%: Yield enhancement at +142bps with government backing providing credit protection
  • •Cash 0%: Fully invested given attractive all-in yields above 3.40% across quality spectrum
⚖️

Balanced

  • •Target duration: 6.5 years — intermediate extension capturing central bank easing cycle steepening
  • •GoC/Provincials 50%: Balanced government exposure with provincial overweight given foreign demand returning
  • •IG Corporates 35%: Sector rotation to financials 35% vs 28% benchmark given regulatory capital strength
  • •HY Corporates 10%: BB-focused allocation avoiding CCC refinancing cliff with quality emphasis
  • •EM Debt 5%: Local currency exposure benefiting from Fed dovish pivot and dollar weakness
  • •Cash 0%: Opportunity cost too high with intermediate yields above 3.80% in quality sectors
📈

Growth

  • •Target duration: 7.0 years — aggressive extension positioning for total return maximization from rate cuts
  • •GoC/Provincials 35%: Reduced weight allowing higher-yielding sector allocation while maintaining quality anchor
  • •IG Corporates 40%: Overweight credit with quality bias — financial and infrastructure focus avoiding cyclicals
  • •HY Corporates 15%: Maximum allocation with BB emphasis — 80% BB/B, 20% CCC given selective opportunities
  • •EM Debt 10%: Increased allocation capturing Fed accommodation tailwinds and emerging market outperformance
  • •Cash 0%: Aggressive deployment given total return opportunity in falling rate environment

Consensus vs Divergence

Where Markets Agree

  • +Fed cutting cycle continuation with 50-75bps total easing through 2026
  • +Investment grade credit spreads unsustainably tight requiring quality rotation
  • +Duration positioning attractive given dovish central bank environment globally
  • +Canadian dollar bonds benefit from policy stability and improving foreign demand

Points of Disagreement

  • ?BoC terminal rate: RBC sees 1.75% vs Scotiabank 2.75% reflecting inflation persistence views
  • ?Credit risk appetite: PIMCO very defensive on HY vs Wellington selective BB exposure
  • ?Duration target: Conservative 5.5Y (Goldman) vs Growth 7.0Y+ (TD Securities) reflecting rate sensitivity
  • ?Provincial value: TD 'structural undervaluation' vs market pricing reflecting foreign demand timing

Key Dates Ahead

DateEventRelevance
February 5ECB Rate DecisionPolicy normalization pace affects global duration positioning
February 5Bank of England Rate DecisionUK inflation trajectory impact on global gilt demand
February 12US CPI ReleaseInflation trajectory confirmation for Fed cutting cycle continuation
February 14Canada Employment ReportLabor market slack assessment for BoC policy path
March 18FOMC & BoC MeetingsPolicy divergence confirmation affecting Canada-US spread dynamics

Sources & References